Impacts of the climate crisis on policing
Prepared by Scientists on Survival with input from retired Detective Sergeant, Paul Stephens
1. Increased demand for emergency response
Climate change exacerbates existing threats and introduces new ones, such as floods, fires, and heatwaves, which directly increase the demand for police and military support in emergencies. For example, the Royal Air Force had to deploy Chinooks to prevent a dam collapse in Derbyshire in 2019 due to torrential rain.
Flooding: Over 5 million properties at risk of flooding will likely lead to increased police involvement in evacuations, managing public order and addressing public safety risks (e.g. looting, health emergencies) during infrastructure disruptions. Severe flooding might prevent the police from reaching affected areas.
Wildfire risk: Increased wildfire risk will demand more police coordination for evacuations, road closures, and protecting life and property.
Food supply shortage: Police must prepare for escalating protests and riots over food access and affordability. Food systems failure due to climate-driven harvest collapses (droughts, floods, heat extremes), food inflation and supply chain disruptions are likely to drive panic buying and civil unrest. Police will need to manage public order and prevent looting during food shortages. 40% of food security experts believe UK civil unrest due to food supply crises is possible within a decade, and 80% within 50 years.
Extreme weather and public health crises: Heatwaves, floods, and fires are already breaking records annually, leading to respiratory diseases, communicable diseases, and heat-related deaths (nearly 3,000 in 2022). Police will need to assist in evacuations, secure hospitals, support emergency medical responses and deploy crowd control during health emergencies. Extreme heat intensifies mental health crises and domestic violence, increasing demands for police intervention.
Cascading infrastructure failures: Events like Storm Arwen in 2021 showed widespread and rapid failures in terms of power outages, infrastructure damage, disruption in water supply, communications, and transport. It highlighted systemic weaknesses in resilience during extreme weather events. In such an event, the police need to coordinate multi-agency responses, secure critical sites, and manage public panic during prolonged disruptions.
With the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the UK could face extreme winter temperatures (e.g. -20°C in London, -30°C in Edinburgh for months) leading to freezing related emergencies.
2. Infrastructure and operational vulnerabilities
Critical infrastructure failure: The UK’s 2,000 raised reservoirs and flood defenses were designed for a climate that no longer exists. Climate impacts, such as flooding and extreme heat, threaten critical infrastructure (energy grids, transport networks, dams, IT and water systems). Police will need to manage traffic disruption, secure affected areas, manage evacuations, and coordinate with other agencies (emergency services, military) during infrastructure failures.
Extended emergencies: The increasingly unstable jet stream is causing prolonged heatwaves and storms, which can overwhelm police resources during extended emergencies like weeks-long heatwaves or floods.
Critical infrastructure stress: Hospitals, transport networks, and communication systems are vulnerable to extreme weather, forcing police to secure and prioritize access to essential services during crises.
The AMOC collapse could disable power grids, freeze transport networks, and disrupt fuel supplies, forcing police to secure fuel depots, and manage traffic/evacuation routes.Water scarcity: Chronic water scarcity could lead to conflicts over water access or industrial disruptions, requiring police intervention to enforce water rationing, prevent riots, and secure water distribution points.
Food security: Nature related risks (e.g. soil degradation, pollinator decline) and climate related risks (floodings, droughts) threaten food security and UK rural economies, potentially increasing crime or protests, and stretching police resources.
With the AMOC collapse, the UK could become 100% dependent on food imports.Disruptions in global food supply chains: Food and energy imports (50% of UK food, 40% of energy) are threatened by global weather extremes, potentially leading to chronic shortages and price inflation. The police might be forced to secure food distribution centers and prevent black-market activity.
AMOC collapse could halve global staple crop (wheat/maize) production.Social tensions: Climate-driven migration from one area of the country to another and competition for resources (e.g. water, food, land) could increase pressures on police to manage conflicts and address rising social tensions.
Climate migration pressures: Global food insecurity and water scarcity may drive increased migration to the UK, putting pressure on police to manage human trafficking rings and tensions in local communities.
Farmer bankruptcies and rural crime: 80% of UK farmers report climate change is threatening their livelihoods, with many facing bankruptcy. This could lead to rural crime spikes (e.g. theft, illegal land use), requiring increased police patrols and community engagement in agricultural areas.
Insurance and economic strain: Uninsurable homes and businesses due for instance to repeated flooding could increase demands on police to patrol abandoned properties and address rising crime in economically stressed communities.
Ungovernable states: The risk of government systems being overwhelmed by cascading crises (e.g. food, health, migration, energy) could lead to breakdowns in public services, including policing, and erode trust in institutions.
3. Resource and budget pressures
Unpreparedness and funding caps: The Climate Change Committee highlighted weak governance and insufficient funding for adaptation. Police may face budget strains due to increased demands for emergency response, overtime, and equipment without corresponding resource allocation.
Cascading crises: The risk of multiple extreme events occurring in quick succession (e.g. a windstorm followed by flooding) could overwhelm police capacity, leading to staff burn out, police equipment shortages, and delayed responses.
Health and productivity: Extreme weather (e.g. heatwaves) could lead to physical and mental health issues in police rank, increasing staff sickness and poor performance.
Long term recovery costs: Events like Storm Boris or a London mega-flood would require years of recovery, diverting police resources from routine duties to ongoing community support, infrastructure protection, and crime prevention in affected areas.
Loss of police infrastructure and assets: Flooding will likely lead to damage or permanent loss of police buildings, IT system and transport. Cyberattacks and disruptions to internet services could hinder police operations and communication during crises.
Chronic increase in demand on police resources: Police will not only face increased workload for maintaining public order, helping evacuations, securing affected areas, and managing public safety but they will also face increased demands for managing protests, enforcing new regulations, or addressing crime linked to resource scarcity or inequality.
AMOC collapse would create multi-month crises requiring sustained police deployment, overtime, and specialized equipment (e.g. cold-weather gear), straining budgets.Budget strains and human resources: Economic instability could severely strain public budgets, including police funding, while simultaneously increasing operational demands (more emergencies and public order incidents). As a consequence demands on officers may increase and they may face more violence and personal financial challenges increasing stress, sickness and vulnerability to corruption.
Lack of preparedness: The UK’s current adaptation plans are insufficient for increased weather related disasters and potentially AMOC-related risks. Police may lack clear protocols, training, or legal frameworks to handle climate-driven emergencies, leading to ad-hoc responses and liability risks.
Police forces throughout the UK are strongly encouraged to host screenings of the People’s Emergency Briefing (www.nebriefing.org/the-film) to (1) bring their employees up-to-speed on the facts around the climate and nature emergency, and (2) discuss how to build more resilience in the UK’s policing structure (territorial, regional and special forces).
